A pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 has already had a heavy toll. As the confirmed cases increase in Greece, I have taken the initiative to create a simple chart that will be updated on the daily basis following the official stats published by the Greek Ministry of Health. Besides data of confirmed cases, a projection will be updated every day following a a simple exponential model till day 7 from 100 confirmed cases and a logistic model after that. Depending on evolving trends, a growth model may be adopted.
Feel free to comment, repost and reuse it.
And above all stay safe and take care of the others by obeying social distancing.
[update 01.05.2020: Figure 2 contains two new plots: % ratio of (total deaths/total cases) and deaths per day and per week]
[update 01.05.2020: Figures 3 and 4 have been deleted]
[update 17.04.2020: Figures 3 and 4 are no longer updated]
[update 10.04.2020: Figures 3 and 4 have been added to provide projections on the “flattening the curves” status, referring to cases and deaths, respectively]
[update 01.04.2020: Added curves showing the rate of having double cases per 1, 2, 3 or 4 days]
update 21.03.2020: Finally, the National Organization of Public Health (EODY) has started publishing official daily reports. The numbers quoted in these reports (see the first such report ) are somewhat different than those announced during the daily briefings of the press. Those numbers and my associated daily predictions are depicted in Fig. 3 below (COVID-19 Outbreak in Greece) which can be safely considered outdated. The graph is now replaced by Fig. 1 and Fig. 3 is no longer updated after 23.03.2020]
[comment 18.03.2020: thanks to @fokitis for suggesting expansion of the dataset and improvements]
[comment 16.03.2020: thanks to @Nyrros for commenting and correcting the initial value of the graph]
[comment 15.03.2020: thanks to @ManosVourliotis for suggesting a visual improvement]
Figure 1 (click to see all details)
Figure 2 (click to see all details)