A pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 has already had a heavy toll. As the confirmed cases increase in Greece, I have taken the initiative to create a simple chart that will be updated on the daily basis following the official stats published by the Greek Ministry of Health. Besides data of confirmed cases, a projection will be updated every day following a a simple exponential model till day 7 from 100 confirmed cases and a logistic model after that.
Feel free to comment, repost and reuse it.
And above all stay safe and take care of the others by obeying social distancing.
[update 17.04.2020: Figures 3 and 4 are no longer updated]
[update 10.04.2020: Figures 3 and 4 have been added to provide projections on the “flattening the curves” status, referring to cases and deaths, respectively]
[update 01.04.2020: Added curves showing the rate of having double cases per 1, 2, 3 or 4 days]
[update 21.03.2020: Finally, the National Organization of Public Health (EODY) has started publishing official daily reports. The numbers quoted in these reports (see the first such report) are somewhat different than those announced during the daily briefings of the press. Those numbers and my associated daily predictions are depicted in Fig. 3 below (COVID-19 Outbreak in Greece) which can be safely considered outdated. The graph is now replaced by Fig. 1 and Fig. 3 is no longer updated after 23.03.2020]
[comment 18.03.2020: thanks to @fokitis for suggesting expansion of the dataset and improvements]
[comment 16.03.2020: thanks to @Nyrros for commenting and correcting the initial value of the graph]
[comment 15.03.2020: thanks to @ManosVourliotis for suggesting a visual improvement]
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3 (stopped updating: 17-apr-2020)
Figure 4 (stopped updating: 17-apr-2020)
5 comments
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An Isotopia 
I understand the trend but figures 3 and 4 are misleading. Someone could argue that the total number of infections and deaths cannot be decreasing.
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Agreed. it is only a phenomenological attempt to establish a peak. I have commented this on twitter from the very beginning.
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New case projection for 14.04 was spot on!!!
23 vs 25 reported….
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New projections for 15.04 are online. Let’s see what’s next.
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Well, I am not so worried about tomorrow’s numbers but rather about the numbers in 2 weeks from now, when the effect of the Greek Easter rebellion starts to unravel.
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